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Goal: Climate Protection

To help stop global warming through practical approaches to decreasing the production of greenhouse gases and to increasing greenhouse gas sequestration.

Mt. Baker in/on a Cloud. Photo by New Moon Blue

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What Is Happening?

We have all become aware of the threat of global warming. The question now is: What are we going to do about it? Understanding the sources of global warming can help us to devise appropriate strategies to reduce it.

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In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated with unprecedented confidence that human emissions of greenhouse gases are causing a rise in average annual temperatures across the globe. Regionally, the King County Climate Action Plan shows that King County generates an estimated 23,000,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide (MTCO2e) annually -- otherwise known as our “carbon footprint”. Unlike the majority of places in the U.S., most of the greenhouse gas emissions in King County come from transportation. This is because hydroelectric power leads to a lower contribution of the electric sector to total emissions in our region compared with the national average. Additionally, other parts of the country have more heavy industry. As a result, King County has nearly twice the national average as a percentage of transportation-related emissions, although for highway transportation the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metropolitan area ranks 27 out of 100 metropolitan areas on a per capita footprint basis. The contribution from residential energy use is also lower than most other metropolitan areas as a benefit of our moderate climate. Overall then, our footprint is small then compared to most other U.S. cities. But it is also true we must do whatever we can, both individually and collectively, to stop global warming. Our ability to reduce transportation-related emissions in the face of growing population will be at the center of climate protection initiatives in this region for years to come.

Status Indicators
Carbon Footprint --- The more we drive, build, and consume, the more greenhouse gases we pump into the atmosphere and the larger our carbon footprint. Public transit and residential density play a role in the size of our footprint, as does the weather, electricity prices and the carbon intensity of electricity generation (here Northwest hydroelectric power is a big advantage). In a comparative study of 100 metropolitan areas, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue had the fifth smallest footprint. (1) (view data graph)
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Why Is It Happening?

The sources of greenhouse gas emissions are embedded in our lifestyles – which makes the challenge of radically shrinking our carbon footprint daunting. Our region is lucky to have some natural advantages such as hydroelectric power and a moderate climate that help to keep our carbon footprint relatively small (by comparison to other U.S. metropolitan areas). On the other hand, these same advantages bring with them increased consumption in the way of a growing population and more dollars to spend.

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Since the production of all products and services involves energy use, increased consumption translates into greater emissions. The component of the Consumer Environmental Index for carbon dioxide captures this effect. There's also all the vehicle miles that go into shopping and the commute to work. Total vehicle miles traveled in the Puget Sound region has increased about 25% from 1992 to 2006, with people driving 900,000 more miles each weekday in 2006 compared to 2005. Puget Sounders also rack up our share of air miles travelled. It is possible to offset at least some of this growth in consumption through the purchase of greener products. Unlike other parts of the US, Washington State generates little coal-powered electricity although it does get 10% of its electricity from a coal-fired plant in Centralia. The bulk of our electricity comes from hydroelectric power. But transportation is fueled by gasoline, King County’s largest energy source. Not surprisingly then, transportation is our region’s largest component of greenhouse gas emissions by sector. Infrastructure and product use efficiencies matter too for climate protection. Tighter, more compact development lends itself to greater energy efficiencies, while urban sprawl and reduced forest cover means fewer trees to store or sequester carbon emissions in this region.

Upstream Indicators
Air Miles Traveled --- Air travel has a huge impact on climate change, presently accounting for 4-9% of all impacts globally and roughly 16% of transportation sector emissions in Washington State. Because aircraft emissions are produced at cruising altitudes high in the atmosphere, they trigger a series of chemical reactions and atmospheric effects that have a net warming effect greater than ground level emissions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated that the climate impact of aircraft is two to four times greater than the effect of their carbon dioxide emissions alone. Work Commute Choices --- The principal source of greenhouse gas emissions in our region is transportation, a significant portion of which comes down to choices we make about how to travel to work. The vast majority of King County commuters continue to drive to work alone in a car (68% in 2003), rather than use more climate-friendly options such as public transit or car pooling. National studies show that a bus with as few as seven passengers is more fuel efficient than the average automobile used for commuting. (view data graph) Consumer Environmental Index --- Every product or service we buy carries an environmental price tag. To reduce the costs of personal consumption, we can "go green" or, better yet, consume less. Using actual expenditure data, the Consumer Environmental Index (CEI) tracks how consumption patterns are influencing climate change, human toxicity and ecosystems toxicity. Just as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks changes in the prices consumers pay for products and services, the CEI tracks changes over time in the environmental emissions and their impacts caused by the production, use and disposal of items purchased each year by Washington’s consumers. (view data graph) Energy Consumption by Source and Per Capita --- According to Washington Department of Ecology estimates, Washington’s electricity sector is dominated by hydro-electric generation, which accounts for over 70% of the electricity generated in the state. The Centralia coal plant accounts for another 10% of electrical generation and about 80% of the state’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power production. The remaining generation, and the primary source of recent growth in capacity in the State, is natural gas and wind power. Most plants that are currently under construction or planned are wind. In total (across the residential, commercial and industrial sectors), Washington has a higher per capita use of electricity than the U.S. as a whole. (view data graph) Urbanization and Impervious Surface Changes --- Urbanization, defined as the transition from a native landscape to a built environment, increases the impervious surface coverage of roads, parking areas, sidewalks, landscaping and rooftops. Research has shown that once watersheds have developed roughly 10 percent of their drainage area into an impervious or paved condition, there is a high potential for physical, chemical, and biological impairments to both water quality conditions and other aquatic resources, resulting in scoured and smothered fish eggs, erosion, flooding and extreme peak storm events. More impervious surfaces quickly carry pollutants into Puget Sound and “reduce, disrupt or entirely eliminate native vegetation, upper soil layers, shallow depressions, and native drainage patterns that intercept, evaporate, store, slowly convey and infiltrate storm water." (1) (view data graph) Vehicle Miles Traveled --- Too much time in our cars poses a number of serious problems. There’s congestion which costs residents and businesses in the Central Puget Sound hundreds of millions of dollars annually in lost productivity. Air quality suffers. And there’s climate change. The principal source of Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions is transportation, accounting for 47% of total emissions in 2005. Transportation-related emissions are also projected to be the largest contributor to future emissions growth in the state from 2005 to 2020. (view data graph)
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Why Is It Important?

During the past century, the Puget Sound region warmed at a rate substantially greater than the global warming trend. Some climate models for the Northwest predict a 2 degree Fahrenheit increase by 2020 and 5 degree F increase by 2050. This seemingly small change in temperature could have massive impacts for our region.

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Of particular concern is the disruption to our natural water cycle. The consequence will be more frequent, extreme weather events such as droughts, fires, floods and mudslides, as well as substantial reductions in our snowpack, significant water shortages, rising sea levels, reduced forest cover, poor air quality, and destructive pest infestations. Snowpack areas that are close to freezing in mid-winter in the Cascades will be most sensitive to warmer temperatures. Based on projected temperature increases, April 1 snowpack could experience a 44 percent loss by the 2040s, and a 58 percent loss by the 2060s. The reduced snowpack levels will lead to a decrease in water supply as well as lower summer stream flows and higher stream temperatures that negatively impacts salmon habitat. Since 1992, seven salmon stocks have become extinct in the Puget Sound region and the number of stock considered healthy has declined from 93 to 81. The potential economic impacts of all these changes are just now being studied, but early analysis shows substantial costs in areas such fire fighting, water conservation, energy costs, insurance premiums, agricultural losses, public health, and damage from flooding and droughts. Finally, it is predicted that our region will see an increase in population from people migrating here to escape the effects of climate change in regions where there will be severe water shortages.

Downstream Indicators
Annual Spring Snowpack --- Snowpack levels in the Cascades not only reflect changes in the climate but also affect the climate of the region. As the snowpack recedes, solar radiations previously reflected by the snow are absorbed by the darker land mass, causing a faster rise in temperature. As the climate warms, more precipitation will fall as rain than snow in the years to come. Snowpack is critical to adequate water supply as it acts as a natural reservoir for storing water. (view data graph) Average Annual Air Temperatures --- At an average annual increase of 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit, the Puget Sound region warmed over the past century at a rate more than double that of global average temperature. (1) Climate models project a continued warming trend in the Pacific Northwest between 0.2 and 1.0 degrees per decade until 2050, with average warming of 3.0 degrees by the 2040s, causing significant changes such as smaller snowpacks, warmer rivers and intense dry spells. (view data graph) Frequency of Flood Events --- Numerous human activities can increase the risk of flooding in an area, including vegetation removal, floodplain development, impervious surface changes, inadequate sizing or poor design of roads, culverts or bridges as well as many other watershed disturbances that impact natural hydrologic functions. Also, recent climate modeling results indicate that “extreme” weather events may become more common in some regions, including the western U.S., as rising average temperatures produce a more energetic climate system. The projections for smaller snowpacks in the Cascades could mean a reduced risk of early spring flooding (from rain-on-snow events) in certain snow-dominant watersheds like the Skagit, but soils saturated by the premature snowmelt could be more susceptible to flooding associated with late-spring rains. Wild Salmon --- Wild salmon are a keystone indicator of the health of our region’s biosphere. They need clean water and a passable stream. The University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group reports that global warming's expected impact includes many negatives for Pacific Northwest salmon. Increased winter flooding and decreased summer and fall streamflows, and elevated warm season stream and estuary temperatures will degrade in-stream and estuarine salmon habitat in the Northwest. These changes will likely cause severe problems for the salmon stocks that are already stressed from already degraded freshwater and estuarine habitat. (view data graph) Urban Growth Trends --- Focusing population growth and new development in designated urban growth areas allows for more efficient transportation, a smaller impervious pavement footprint, and more efficient delivery of services. Under Washington’s Growth Management Act, Urban Growth Areas have been designated to receive the brunt of growth. Concentrating growth in this way encourages compact, efficient, and vibrant communities throughout the region’s metropolitan core. (view data graph)
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Additional Resources

Our Warming World, 2003
This pictorial essay, put together by the Seattle P-I, depicts a warmer, wetter Northwest.

Citizen's Climate Briefing
This 2007 briefing provides insight into the risks of climate change and the costs of different approaches to dealing with it. The briefing is published under a Creative Commons license by Climate Dialogues Seattle.

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